Hyderabad Stocks：Do more yen, Indian stock？International investment institutions lay out in 2024 Asia Investment
Buy yen, sell Japanese bonds, snapped Indian and Indonesia’s stocks, these are Allianz Global Investors, Fidelity International, Princid Asset Management, and JanusThe 2024 Asian regional investment proposal proposed by the fund manager of HENDERSON Investors).
However, they also believe that asset allocation in the next year will face rare challenges in history.In the past 12 months, there have been many surprising phenomena and events in the global market, including US Treasury yields soared to the highest point in 16 years, and global political tensions caused by the two ground conflicts.At the same time, the Fed’s cash interest rate target has still weakened the attractiveness of many high -yield investment strategies that have been popular in the past decades.
Nevertheless, many investors still believe that considering Asia’s growth prospects and relatively loose monetary policy environments, Asia may still be a highlight of the global market next year.
Do more yen and short daily debt?
A year ago, many investors were optimistic about the yen, but because the Fed remained at a higher level of interest rates at a higher level for a longer period of time, the dollar fell about 10%in 2023.Now, the fund manager bets that it will be different in 2024. The Bank of Japan will eventually be forced to end its negative interest rate policy.
Zijian Yang, a multi -asset director of the Affiliated Global Asia -Pacific region, said: "The extremely low valuation of the yen has continued for so long, and we think there should be a turning point next year."Hyderabad Stocks
Look at more yen.Pacific Investment Management CO. also said last month that the agency will purchase the yen and bet on the betting that the central bank will be forced to tighten the monetary policy and push up the yen.RBC Bluebay Asset Management, a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada, also hinted that the yen will appreciate.
Mizuho Securities Co., a strategist in Tokyo, Shoki Omori, said: "The yen is not disappointed, and the long -term plunge of the Japanese yen is coming to an end.They seem to be determined to tear negative interest rates. "
In fact, with the market bet on the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut next year and the Japanese Bank of Japan withdrawing from the negative interest rate policy next year, the yen has risen 7%since mid -November, and the increase has increased by 4.4%since December. It is expected to record the monthly trend during the year.EssenceLast week, the Fed’s latest dot -matrix chart raised the interest rate cut next year to 75 basis points. The 10 -year US debt yield has fallen to 50 basis points in the past month.
Based on a number of forecast medium value, with the reduction of the US -Japan interest spreads, by the end of 2024, the exchange rate of the yen to the US dollar may rise to 135.
In addition, some analysts also believe that Japan’s economic fundamentals will also help the yen rebound.Standard Bank’s G-10 strategy director Steven Barrow in London believes that the Japanese economy has sufficient long-term structural improvement.Therefore, no matter whether the spread is reduced, the yen will appreciate in the long run.He enumerated the positive changes in the Japanese market, including the end of the tightness of the currency and the rise of the stock market. The Dongzhi Index has soared about 23%so far this year.
The other side of the yen is higher is the decline in Japanese bond prices.In recent months, with the relaxation of the return on yield curve control policy (YCC), the yield rate of daily debt has been rising.Agra Stock
More and more investors bet, because the acceleration of inflation has brought pressure on the Bank of Japan to continue to tighten the monetary policy, and is known for "high risk" "widow trading" -shorting Japanese bonds may actually start in 2024.Re -effective.
Fund International’s fund manager George Efstathopoulos said that this is "in the past 20 years, the investment strategy of daily debt is basically, do not shorten the Japanese government bonds. But I think there may be something in the future in the future.Different. "He revealed that as part of the investment strategy next year, he had cleared the daily debt.
Buy Indian stocks?
In addition, the Indian stock market continued to perform strongly this year. The two benchmark indexes, the NIFTY 50 Index and the Sensex Index, continued to set a historical record high. The market value exceeded 4 trillion US dollars and rose to the fourth global.Many investors bet that due to strong economic growth potential, corporate profit growth, increased private investment, and current prime minister Modi will have a high probability of successful re -election next year, the Indian stock market will continue to rise in 2024 after three years.
SEEMA Shah, chief global strategist in London, said: "The key advantage of India is the basic growth prospect. Now investors are very optimistic about India and have confidence.The advantage at the level. "She also added that the Indian financial market relies more on domestic development, not global development.
Indonesia’s stock market is also worthy of attention
Like India, global investors have also seen a structural growth story from Indonesia’s economic performance.Although investors’ investment in Indonesia’s stock market is more selective than Indonesia.
Bank stocks are one of the optimistic sectors of Junlin Deson.SAT DUHRA, the investment group manager of the agency in Singapore, said that the Indonesian bank has "strong deposit franchise and sufficient liquidity. Therefore, at this stage, Indonesian bank stocks are the most suitable sectors for buying."In addition, he believes that from nickel to aluminum, all types of metal manufacturers in Indonesia can also boost from the country’s transition from the country to green energy and the growth of electric vehicles.
Slightly high -yield bonds?
With the collapse of the real estate industry in the Asian region, Asia’s high -income bonds have experienced difficulties for several years, and fund managers predict that this decline may not end.Many investors said that the risk premium of high -yield bonds in Asia, that is, the spreads of interests still cannot fully compensate for high risks holding these securities.
Shawn Sim, an analyst of the Royal Bank of Canada’s Royal Bank of Wealth Management (RBC Wealth Management) in Singapore, wrote in the 2024 global outlook report released last month: "Asia’s high yield bonds have fallen out of favor, and macro uncertainty is in macroexAnd concerns about special risks, we believe that the asset category is less attractive.
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